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VAKIFBANK
ANNUAL REPORT 2014
29
Overall, the economy is expected to have grown by
2.9% in 2014. With the additional support of domestic
demand, real GDP growth is expected to be around 4.0%
in 2015. Economic activity is expected to pick up because
of the base effect from low oil prices that indirectly
lowers all other cost items. Furthermore, structural
reforms introduced in November and December of 2014
will potentially contribute positively to growth. The
most important risk factor for the growth of the Turkish
economy in 2015 is uncertainty regarding the impacts of
potential interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve on the
global markets and economy.
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE STANDS AT 10.9%
AS OF NOVEMBER 2014
The unemployment rate stands at 10.7% as of November
2014 excluding the seasonality effect, and at 10.9%
on a seasonally-adjusted basis. According to the data
series going back to 2005 published by TURKSTAT, the
unemployment rate bottomed out in June 2012 and began
rising in July 2012. The November 2014 unemployment
rate was the highest since October 2010. The labor
force participation rate, which reached its highest level
since 2008 at 51%, contributed to the increase in the
unemployment rate. Lack of meaningful recovery since
2013 and the new moderate growth environment are
keeping the unemployment rate elevated. In November
2014, according to seasonality-unadjusted employment
data, employment increased above the historical average
in the agriculture, industry and service sectors while
employment in the construction sector was below
average.
A higher growth outlook in 2015 is expected to reduce
unemployment over the course of the year. However,
the ongoing impact of increased participation of women
in the labor force might limit the potential decline in the
unemployment rate during 2015.
REAL ECONOMIC GROWTH
(Y-Y, %)
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
2006Q1
2006Q3
2007Q1
2007Q3
2008Q1
2008Q3
2009Q1
2009Q3
2010Q1
2010Q3
2011Q1
2011Q3
2012Q1
2012Q3
2013Q1
2013Q3
2014Q1
2014Q3
Industrial Production Index
Gross Domestic Product (Real)
Source: TÜİK
REAL GDP (YOY, %) AND INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX (YOY, %)
16
52
50
48
46
44
42
40
14
12
10
8
6
May/05
November/05
May/06
November/06
May/07
November/07
May/08
November/08
May/09
November/09
May/10
November/10
May/11
November/11
May/12
May/13
May/14
November/13
November/12
November/14
Source: TÜİK
Labor Force Participation Rate
Unemployment Rate