VAKIFBANK
ANNUAL REPORT 2015
28
THE WORLD AND TURKEY IN 2015
THE GLOBAL ECONOMY CONTINUES TO
EXHIBIT SIGNS OF MODERATE RECOVERY
After growing by 3.4% in 2014, the global
economy is expected by the IMF to close the
year 2015 with a growth rate of 3.1%. The US
economy posted a 2.4% growth rate for the
year 2015. Private consumption and public
expenditure were important factors bringing
Euro Zone’s growth rate to the anticipated level
of 1.6% in the third quarter of 2015. On the
other hand, due to the weak performance of the
global economy, exports had a negative effect
on growth. As for the Japanese economy, after
four consecutive quarters of negative growth,
there was a weak 0.7% growth in the second
quarter of 2015, followed by 1.6% in the third
quarter. The Chinese economy, which plays a
crucial role in the global economic performance,
closed the year with a 6.9% growth rate. To
add momentum to the economy, Chinese
officials took a number of measures including
devaluation; however, the expected recover has
yet to be seen, creating a downside risk on the
global growth outlook.
THE EUROPEAN AND JAPANESE CENTRAL
BANKS STICK ON THEIR QUANTITATIVE
EASING PROGRAMS, WHILE THE FED HAS
ALREADY TAKEN THE FIRST STEP TOWARDS
TIGHTENING ITS MONETARY POLICY.
Developed economies such as the USA,
Europe and Japan have generally pursued
expansionary monetary policies to trigger
the recovery of the global economy. In 2014
and 2015, there was a divergence between
the monetary policies of developed country
central banks. The Fed ended on 29 October
2014 its QE3 program, initiated in September
2012, and in December 2015, announced its
decision to raise the policy rate for the first
time in 10 years. The US policy rate went
up by 0.25% percentage points, from the
0-0.25% interval to the 0.25-0.50% interval.
However, in her speech delivered after the
meeting the Fed President Janet Yellen
indicated that four interest rate rises could
take place in 2016, and for the first time,
used the world “gradual” to describe these
upcoming rises.
WHICH UNDERSTANDS THE WORLD
THE GLOBAL BANK
GLOBAL ECONOMY
After growing by 3.4% in 2014, the global
economy is expected by the
IMF to close the
year 2015 with a growth rate of 3.1%.
The US economy posted a 2.4% growth rate
for the year 2015.
10
5
0
-5
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Developing Countries
World Developed Countries
Source: IMF
REAL ECONOMIC GROWTH
(Y-Y, %)
Expectation
