VKF_FRAE_2017

37 VakıfBank Annual Report 2017 that this downtrend may continue in the coming months, it is likely that industrial production will make only a limited contribution to growth in the last quarter. In this regard, although growth may lose steam in the last quarter of the year compared to the first three quarters, it is expected to cap the year 2017 at a rate above 7%. It is considered that, in 2018, the Turkish economy will maintain its strong growth outlook and is grow by 5.5%. In the last quarter, the CGF effect, one of the main factors underlying the growth in the first three quarters, grew weaker and the Special Consumption Tax discounts expired; as a result, growth is expected to come in at a lower figure in the fourth quarter. Furthermore, the rapid surge in the foreign exchange rate and interest rates create added pressure on financial conditions, turning the industrial production index downwards starting from October. Considering The impact of loans extended under the Credit Guarantee Fund (CGF) continued in the third quarter, resulting in a 12.4% increase in investment spending in the third quarter. It is considered that, in 2018, the Turkish economy will maintain its strong growth outlook and is grow by 5.5%. CONSUMPTION COMPONENTS’ CONTRIBUTION TO GROWTH (POINT) Source: TSI 2012.Q3 2013.Q1 2014.Q1 2014.Q3 2015.Q1 2015.Q3 2016.Q1 2016.Q3 2017.Q1 2017.Q3 7 0 -3 17 2013.Q3 Public Consumption Net Export Household Consumption Investment SECTORS’ CONTRIBUTION TO GROWTH (POINT) Source: TSI 2012.Q3 2013.Q1 2014.Q1 2014.Q3 2015.Q1 2015.Q3 2016.Q1 2016.Q3 2017.Q1 2017.Q3 10 5 0 -5 15 2013.Q3 Services Data-subvention Industry Construction Agriculture